Bilal M. Ayyub, PhD, PE, Dist.M.ASCE, Hon.M.ASME is a University of Maryland, College Park Professor and Director of Center for Technology and Systems Management; a Visiting Professor, Imperial College London; Senior Economist, and other positions.
Introduction The Strait of Hormuz is often described as the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. But on April 12, 2026, following the conclusion of U.S.–Iran talks without agreement, real-time vessel tracking suggests something more subtle and more important: The system did not stop. It starting to be
A systems-based analysis of infrastructure, food, water, and recovery dynamics Three broad classes of catastrophic risk are often discussed: (1) Nuclear detonation, (2) Radiological dispersal (dirty device), and (3) Electromagnetic disruption (EMP). They are examined from effects to recovery to inform policy and planning. 1. Nuclear Detonation — Multi-System Collapse Primary
Introduction Public discussions of nuclear risk often focus on the facility itself, its design, containment, and potential release mechanisms. This perspective is incomplete. Risk must be understood as: A function of the infrastructure system, environmental dynamics, and interdependencies. This becomes particularly evident when comparing: * Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (Iran) * Dimona
💡My prior essays on Infrastructure Tokenization generated a lot of interest and questions related to terminology and why needed which are being addressed briefly herein. My prior essays are: Infrastructure Tokenization: An Institutional Playbook for Capital Modernization Infrastructure Tokenization: Modernizing Assets Through Digital Finance Tokenization for Digital Finance Tokenization refers
In a prior essay, I outlined the structural case for infrastructure tokenization. The thesis was straightforward: infrastructure is capital intensive, illiquid, and structurally constrained by traditional financing channels. After outlining a plan for infrastructure tokenization, the next step is execution following a newly developed playbook. From Concept to Playbook We
Infrastructure Capital Gaps and Innovation Need for Capital Generation According to the ASCE 2024 Report Card, U.S. infrastructure received a C grade, with nearly $7.4 trillion required between 2024 and 2033 across highways, bridges, rail, transit, water systems, electricity, airports, and ports. Emerging markets face an additional projected
The ASCE–NOAA Task Force on Climate Resilience in Engineering Practice Infrastructure systems across the United States are facing increasing stress from extreme weather events, shifting climate patterns, and evolving environmental hazards. Traditional engineering design has long relied on historical data under the assumption of stationarity, that past environmental conditions
I am pleased to share that the Third Edition of my textbook, Numerical Analysis for Engineers: Methods and Applications (with Richard H. McCuen) is now available at a special discount from Routledge. 🔗 https://www.routledge.com/Numerical-Analysis-for-Engineers-Methods-and-Applications/Ayyub-McCuen/p/book/9781032993003 This widely used textbook demonstrates the power of numerical
We are living in a moment where geopolitical tensions are increasingly nested within complex alliance systems, nuclear doctrines, domestic politics, and rapid information flows. In such systems, escalation is rarely linear. It is systemic. As discussions of military confrontation intensify in the Middle East, we must examine not only immediate
In my previous post, I explored how AI is reshaping infrastructure risk modeling. (Link in comments.) Today, I want to extend that discussion to engineering economics. Infrastructure risk modeling is moving beyond static checklists and expert judgment. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) is enabling new quantitative methods that integrate technical risk
For decades, infrastructure risk modeling has relied heavily on expert judgment, historical records, and structured qualitative matrices. That approach built the foundations of modern risk analysis. But it is no longer sufficient. Today’s infrastructure systems are deeply interdependent, data-rich, and increasingly exposed to compound hazards, climate extremes, cyber-physical threats,
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